by Barry C. Picker, CPA/PFS, CFP (the following is not to be taken too seriously)
First, congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens on their Super Bowl victory.
But the important question for those of us who do financial planning and investment management is: who, or rather what, are the Baltimore Ravens?
Why is this important? It’s important because the Super Bowl winner has predicted the movement of the stock market for many years.
Basically, if a team in the NFC, or an original NFL team that moved to the AFC in the merger, wins the Super Bowl, the market will have an up year. If an AFC team, other than an original NFL team that moved to the AFC, wins the Super Bowl, the market will have a down year. (With exceptions, of course.)
There were three NFL teams that moved to the AFC back in the merger. They were the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Colts, since moved to Indianapolis, and the Cleveland Browns.
So at first glance, the Baltimore Ravens are an AFC team and this does not bode well for the market in 2013. But a little history is in order.
The Baltimore Ravens came into existence in 1996, when owner Art Modell decided to move the Cleveland Browns to Baltimore. In the ensuing controversy over the move, it was decided by the NFL that the team being moved would be considered a new franchise, although all the players on the Cleveland Browns were now Baltimore Ravens. (Subsequently, a new Cleveland Browns franchise was awarded to the city of Cleveland, but they haven’t really been any good.)
So while all the team colors and team records of the original Cleveland Browns remained in Cleveland and now belong to the new Cleveland Browns, the real original Cleveland Browns are really the Baltimore Ravens.
Hence, the dilemma. If we say that the Baltimore Ravens are really the Cleveland Browns reincarnated in Baltimore, then they’re an original NFL team, and this bodes well for the stock market.
But, if the Ravens are really a new team as the league itself declared, then it’s an AFC team, and 2013 might not be a good year for investors.
What’s the answer? Check back with me next year.
